On Oct 7, 2023 Hamas launched one of those very significant terrorist raids against Israel, that will likely be memorialized as being definitional nightmare scenarios we have seen a few of in the last 25 years (9/11, Madrid, Bataclan, Mumbai, etc). These types of raids are typified by their absolute ruthlessness and the opportunism of the attackers. As sensational as this attack was, it is not new, it maybe represents some new TTPs, some novelty when it comes to insertion, and strong coordination between units. But it’s not new.
In the west, to those who pay attention to the radical political petri dishes our left-wing inner cities, and college campuses, there has been the growth of movements such as BDS (Boycott, Divest, Sanction) which encourage those actions to be taken against Israeli interests, as a means of supporting the Palestinian cause. Confusingly, BDS and other movements are generally non-specific about support of the Palestinian cause, or the desire for mid-east peace, and increasingly BDS and other movements populated mostly by the over-socialized college students and their busy-body professors have largely dropped any pretense of being anything but anti-Israel, and very often anti-Jew.
Movements like BLM (Black Lives Matter), antifa, gay, trans, groups frequently cross pollinate, as such there tends not to be a lot of variation in ideology and beliefs amongst these groups, also, some of these groups share not just ideas, but membership. The cross-over with BDS, and pro-Palestinian groups with these other groups, means international events in the middle east, can easily turn into civil unrest in the US, and many large cities in Europe.
Since Oct 7, there have been a number of pro-Palestine rallies, most have been peaceful and rather unremarkable. However, a number have resulted in differing levels of violence, including exchanging gunfire. One event that stood out, was on Oct 22, in Minneapolis, MN. A major street was blockaded, and some retiree weaved his way through the crowd, got maced, chased, his car pounded on. The level of organization was rather impressive, vehicles were driven in to blockade the street, drones were flying overhead, and there were essentially roving QRFs (Quick Reaction Forces) on motorbikes and quad bikes. (I will not link the video, but search on youtube). The display was at the very least iterative, of tactics seen at previous protests where bicycles would be used to control access of the police to areas where “direct actions” were happening.
Not all marches have resulted in kinetic street take-overs in the same way everywhere. A number of very large rallies and marches have taken place in Paris, London, and many cities in the US. However, it seems generally that western support is tepid in the face of so much at home opposition. The alignment of so many affinity groups, the slick media releases, has certainly made Hamas’ jihad the cause celeb.
There have been a number of reports, and warnings repeated by the media that there remain the possibilities of attacks in the US on specific days approximately every two weeks. No attacks have yet materialized, but certainly more reports and notices are sure to follow.
Pro-Palestine protests, marches, and rallies, in the west should be taken as a show of force by Hamas, Iran, and their allies. Backlit against the recurrent threat of terrorist attacks in the US and elsewhere put out by the government show that the threat is being taken seriously however, it does not rise to a level where action can be taken.